Mar 14, 2026
3 min read
Rising crude oil prices are quickly passed on to consumers due to refined fuel prices, geopolitical risk premiums and corporate activity.
From Brent to the pump: Why is gasoline rising above oil?
The increase in the price of crude oil due to the price of refined oil, geopolitical risk and the performance of the energy market are quickly passed on to consumers.
More than 12,600 gas stations throughout Spain are under the control of the government and the CNMC.Since the end of February, the price of a barrel of oil - especially the benchmark Brent brand for Europe - has been full of headlines: “A barrel exceeds $100”, “Exceeded 110”... However, these data do not reflect the price of oil purchased at that moment for refining.Why did this increase in crude oil end up in drivers' pockets sooner than expected?
In fact, a quote refers to the value of a futures contract: an agreement to buy or sell crude oil at a later date at the price set today. That is, financial markets reflect expectations about oil prices in the coming months, not necessarily its immediate physical scarcity. For ordinary citizens the inevitable question is: if these are contracts for the future, why do prices at the pump immediately increase?
For Juan Luis Jimenez, professor at the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, the short answer is lack of competition.Economists explain that this phenomenon is widely documented in the academic literature."This is known as the rocket and feather effect: prices rise like a rocket during any negative news, but fall slowly like a feather when the market relaxes," he notes.
However, professionals in the sector offer a different reading.Remember that Brent is only one piece of the puzzle.Service stations do not buy crude oil, but refined products (gasoline and diesel)."Many times we only look at Brent, but we buy the product at a price set by the international price of solar," explained Nacho Rabadán, director general of the Confederation of Spanish Service Station Employers (CEEES).
Geopolitics "risk premium"
When there are crises in key areas, such as the current tensions in the Middle East, markets react by anticipating supply problems.This perception translates into a "risk premium" that drives up prices before a drop of fuel is lost.The Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point through which most of the world's production circulates, is a thermometer of investment panic.
But the external context does not explain everything.The structure of the Spanish market is also crucial.According to Jimenez, competition problems exist at different levels of the network, from processing to the final point of sale.Although the emergence of independent operators has boosted the sector, the control of large groups is still noticeable.
According to competition data, in mid-June 2025, Spain has 12,685 service stations.43.8% are independent, but some are under the influence of large traditional users.In this case, the government is asked to be very careful.The third vice president and minister of environmental reform, Sara Agesen, recently asked the CNMC to strengthen vigilance to prevent international instability from becoming an excuse to unduly expand trade borders.
In parallel, the Organization for Consumers and Consumers (OCU) has reported to the regulator that there has been a disproportionate increase in fuel prices since the start of the latest geopolitical expansion.According to their calculations, gasoline became more expensive in just one week by 12 cents per liter and diesel by 24 cents.And asked the CNMC to investigate possible collusive behavior in the sector and harming consumers.
Diesel lights and taxes
The current situation is more complicated for diesel, which has reached a higher standard than petrol.A structural flaw is at play here: Global refining capacity is insufficient to cover demand for medium drains (diesel and kerosene).Any threat to the Persian Gulf's refineries puts pressure on these prices more than any other fuel, as it is the rarest commodity on the world market.
Regarding the frequent tax debate, Jiménez said a few things: «The tax has not changed.If the price rises significantly from one day to the next, it is because the operator has decided to immediately transfer the increase from the international market to the pump.
In the short term, resources to stop this expansion are very limited.Both academia and the private sector are looking at previous measures, such as the 20-cent price cut in 2022, which caused serious liquidity problems at small and medium-sized gas stations by driving subsidies.accelerate the energy transition, improve transport efficiency and reduce absolute dependence on imported oil.
Easter: gasoline is expensive at the beginning of the high season
The increase in fuel prices comes at a particularly sensitive time for the industry: at the start of the major road transport seasonEaster traditionally marks the beginning of the period with the highest fuel consumption of the year, which lasts until the end of summer
However, the increase in the price of gasoline and diesel may reduce some of that demand."When the price goes up, consumption starts to fall," said Nacho Rabadán, director general of the Spanish Confederation of Service Employers (CEEES).According to him, many drivers choose to reduce trips or cancel trips when the price of fuel reaches certain levels.The department fears that this situation will come.coincides with one of the most important periods of the year for service stations.A good part of the annual sale is concentrated from Easter to September, so the combination of high prices and low activity can affect the bills of many stations.
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