Mar 25, 2026
3 min read
The effects of the war started by the USA and Israel in the Middle East do not only mean an increase in energy (fuel and heating gas) prices...
The effect of the war initiated by the US and Israel in the Middle East translates into an increase in energy prices (fuel and heating gas), but entered directly into the Excel templates of banks when issuing and evaluating their loans. This Tuesday, the Euribor reached its highest level in September 2024, which reached the level of 3% in its biggest intraday rise since the financial crisis of 2008.This is only a certain rebound, because the preliminary average for the month of March is 2.479%, this indicator is slightly above how it was quoted twelve months ago, but it points to an increasing interest rate trend.According to the Euribor of March, those who control their mortgage will increase their annual fee by about 102 euros (about 8.5 euros per month) for mortgages that have been established for a value of 200,000 euros.indicates, but for loans of 350,000 euros, this increase is about 15 euros per month and 15 euros per year), according to iAhorro calculations." This is bad news for everyone who has a variable mortgage, because they will notice how their loan amount will increase, we have not seen since March 2024 (...) and for those who are looking for a mortgage now"units are already 0.1% and It calculates that prices have increased by between 0.15%.
Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed an increase in borrowing costs as early as 2026. This is a fundamental move, which goes beyond the beginning of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, although, of course, it has been affected by the closure of the Strait after three and a half weeks and the total price of energy in Hormuz. The supply chain that reaches homes. The central bank reviewedtheir inflation forecast for this year, which is again out of control and outside its roadmap, from the 1.9% originally planned to the current 2.6%.Christine Lagarde spoke of a "significant impact" on prices in the short term and, although analysts urged him not to leave rates until it is resolved, not only with the shock of the war on oil and gas supplies - but also with many other products exported from the Persian Gulf.- The market discount loans for the next month.
The ECB wants to make its own warning to interest businesses in the future.The average of two and three discounted increases is starting with the next meeting which is to be held at the end of April.Currently, the rate of interest on deposits is 2% and that on loans is 2.15%.At the end of January, according to data from the INE, the mortgage was fixed at a fixed rate in the middle closed at 2.84%, compared to the combined difference, at 2.92%.The Spanish Mortgage Association, with data from February, mentions the average price that stands at 2.81%.
Everything shows that the upward trend will continue.The banking sector, which has already recognized the rise in prices in 2026, predicts that the average loan rate will increase in the first part of 2026. Something that adds to the rise in prices that already penalizes access to property and creates a "crowding" where most of the demand does not meet the requirements of the market.According to the latest data from INE, the purchase and sale of housing at the beginning of the year happened by 5%, with a large impact on mobile homes (-5.4%).
The drop in home purchases, to 57,489 transactions, was weighed down by the war in Iran, which could lead to higher construction costs, putting additional pressure on final prices in a market already breaking all records for price growth due to a lack of supply.
In this context, the increase in prices not only slows down sales, but also causes the need to request bank financing for those who manage to stay in the market.However, the latest data from the INE confirms that the average amount of mortgages increased by 8.6% to 165,677 euros, increasing the total capital borrowed by entities by 15.4% in one year.The National Federation of Real Estate Associations (FAI) warns of a lack of "Financial capacity and skepticism about the current prices" which is starting to make it difficult to close the activity, even for those who have a stable salary but depend on financing.
All this opens a gap in access where a large part of the demand has to postpone their decision to buy because of the lack of products "at competitive prices," said María Matos, spokesperson for Fotocasa, and the increase in the cost of property and debt needed to get them.
