Mar 19, 2026
3 min read
Investors are fleeing risk due to high oil prices.Ibex 35 fell 2%.
Escalation of war in the Middle East punishes the stock market;Capricorn loses 17,000 points
Investors are running away from risk as oil prices rise.The Ibex 35 is down 2%
The progress of the war is not giving peace to world markets and, after attacks on energy bases in the Middle East, the price of oil is climbing to new levels and exceeds 117 dollars per barrel, worrying investors that the war will increase inflationary pressures.In this context, Asian stock markets suffered heavy losses.In Japan, the Nikkei ended up correcting 3.5% after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep interest rates on hold.US stock futures were slightly lower after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% on Thursday.Meanwhile, European indices suffered a decline of more than 1.5%.The German Dax fell by 2.3%, and the Ibex 35 by 2% and lost the level of 17,000 points.
Brent crude prices, which rose more than 9%, have come under the spotlight in attacks on key energy facilities in the Gulf - which have left the world's largest liquefied natural gas export terminal in Qatar - raising concerns about a longer-than-expected conflict and its consequences.above 70 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).
The biggest decliner within the Ibex 35 was Cellnex, at close to 6%.They are followed by ArcelorMittal and Indra, both holding over 4%.Only Naturgy avoids bleeding with a 0.4% increase.
Rising oil prices amid wars in the Middle East have raised concerns among central banks around the world about possible inflationary pressures.Treasuries fell ahead of the curve, pushing yields higher, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the conflict had added new uncertainty to the inflation outlook.The US central bank left interest rates unchanged.
"There is no denying that rising oil prices are starting to have a general impact," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, in a statement reported by Bloomberg.
Powell's comments prompted traders to lower their expectations for a rate cut, reinforcing the view of higher long-term rates amid volatile energy markets.Now, they only expect a Federal Reserve monetary policy cut of about 15 basis points this year, less than a quarter of a point.In an economic forecast released alongside their decision, Federal Reserve officials raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%.In particular, they predict core inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and food sectors, will also rise to 2.7%.
Thomas Poullaouec, head of multi-asset solutions for Asia-Pacific at T. Rowe Price, said: "Current geopolitical conflicts and a more pronounced energy supply crisis could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, which could test risky assets as valuations continue to rise."“That said, earnings momentum and economic growth remain favorable, supported by expansionary fiscal policy in many regions,” he said.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to keep interest rates steady after their meetings on Thursday, the Bank of Japan confirmed this morning, but attention will focus on comments on the impact of the war on inflation and growth.
Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, said the key question for policymakers is whether higher energy costs risk missing inflation expectations or whether the shock is temporary."Rising interest rates cannot increase oil supply, but can only slow the demand response to higher prices, exacerbating unstable growth. So, many adjustments to the energy crisis happen organically," he said.
Beyond the war focus, concern remained about the safety of private property.S&P Global Ratings has cut its outlook on flagship private equity fund Cliffwater LLC to negativity after a large number of redemption requests.Pacific Investment Management Co. refrains from selling private bonds because of concerns about their quality, said its president Christian Strack.
Stock market - Money - Credit - Interest rates - Commodities
