Apr 05, 2026
3 min read
Traders Polymarket and Kalashi bet more than $200 million on the outcome of the war in Iran.This is indicated by American intervention, air strikes and diplomatic quotas.
Traders in the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets have bet hundreds of millions of dollars on the outcome of the 2026 Iranian war;Currently, US intervention in Iran has a probability of 90% with a trade volume of more than $115 million.Highlights:
Kalshi and Polymarket Iran Forecast: Over $200 Million Betting on 2026 Conflict Outcome
- Multi-market traders have bet $115 million that US troops will arrive in Iran by December 31, giving it a 90 percent chance.
- The Kalshi market has an amount of 7.3 million dollars on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which shows the great concern of the 7-day closure.
- Mujtaba Khamenei has a 64% chance of leading Iran by the end of 2026, according to succession markets after the death of the Supreme Leader.
Bet on the outcome of the war in 2026
The war, known by the United States as “Operation Epic Fury” and by Israel as “Roaring Lion,” began on February 28, 2026, after the collapse of nuclear negotiations in Rome. American and Israeli forces launched coordinated air strikes across Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was among those killed.
Polymarket's most active Iran market currently covers five categories: military time, leadership succession, regional attacks, Strait of Hormuz and diplomacy.Taken together, they reflect the conflict, which operators believe is far-reaching and cannot be resolved on favorable terms.
On the military front, 82% of bets expect the conflict between Iran, Israel and the US to end before December 31. Traders give a 69% chance that President Donald Trump will announce the end of military operations against Iran before June 30. The leadership market moves quickly. Gives a 64% chance that he will stay in power until the end of 2026, backed by $6 million. A total change of leadership before the end of the year is36% Reza Pahlavi has only an 18% chance of entering Iran before June 30, although the $13 million figure suggests traders are paying attention.
The Strait of Hormuz is where the biggest bets are placed.The Kalshi market, which analyzes whether Iran will effectively close the strait for seven days or more, has a volume of 7.3 million dollars distributed in the three markets below.As a result.The probability of attacking an oil field before April 30 also stands at 31%.The shipping market presents a bleak outlook for the near future.Polymarket gives only an 11% chance that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal on April 30, and that number has increased to 33% on May 31. The daily price of shipping on April 3 is 100% between 0 and 10.There is a 51% chance that the daily price will exceed 20 ships by the end of April.In Kalshi, the issue of the nuclear deal attracts a large amount of dollars.In four markets, traders invested 3.16 million dollars due to the nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran.A deal before 2027 has a 35% chance of 2.73x.The contract before August will decrease to 19% 4.98x.Polymarket puts the chance of a nuclear agreement before April 30 at only 3%.
The $474,000 polymarket has a 9 percent chance of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027.There is an 8 percent chance the U.S. will formally declare war on Iran before Dec. 31, costing $5 million.
Diplomatic activity on both platforms is viewed with skepticism.A diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran before June 30 is a 56% chance on the polymarket with a volume of $1 million.JD Vance has a 21% chance of talking to Iranian negotiators before April 30. Kalshi sees a 17% chance that the US will reopen its embassy in Iran.
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Kalshi has an 11% chance of Trump visiting Iran before 2027.Before June 2026, this probability drops to 2%.
By April 4, Iran claimed to have shot down two US jets near the Strait of Hormuz.The White House issued an ultimatum: reopen the strait by April 6 or face an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure.Administrators took notice.Funds were moved before the due date.
