Apr 03, 2026
3 min read
Washington should not intervene on the island to gain an ideological argument.It is about saving millions of people and saving the country by bringing it into its fold.
Is Cuba another US ally in the Caribbean?
Washington should not intervene on the island to win an ideological dispute.It is about saving millions of people and saving the country to attract them into his sphere.
Cuba is bankrupt and its current situation justifies America to intervene.Its economy has been in a cumulative decline of nearly 10% since 2019.There is a shortage of food, there is a shortage of medicine, and there is also a shortage of fuel.There are blackouts up to 20 hours a day.And even if the government doesn't publish the numbers, according to the Cuban Human Rights Watch, almost 90% of Cubans live in extreme poverty.
As if that wasn't enough, Cuba is running out of people.Between 2 and 3 million Cubans have emigrated since 1959, and the latest wave has been particularly violent.According to analyzes compiled by the University of Navarra, the regime recognizes in 2024 that the country's effective population will decrease by 10.1% compared to December 2020, to less than 10 million people, a level similar to that of 1985.After reaching about 11.3 million at the beginning of 2010, the great demographic process of the country. Migration and birth rate in free fall (from 35.7 births per 1000 people in 1963 to 9.18 in 2024).
In this context, while remittances from Cubans abroad—estimated at nearly $2.3 billion by 2023—are essential to the livelihoods of families and the dictatorship when sent through official channels, they do not promote industry or progress.
The real prices in Cuba can be closer to 60% or 70%, although the official data is about 12% to 14%, because it only shows the price of the state market, management and the large supply shortage.
On Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, Cuba ranks slightly worse than the global average at 40/100, but better than allies such as Colombia and Mexico, and especially in the Middle East, Nicaragua and Venezuela, which are among the world's 10 most corrupt countries.
However, Cuba is not a baseless country.For decades, they achieved real social progress.Literacy exceeds 99%, according to UNESCO.Life expectancy is around 77-78 years, according to the World Bank.And the human development index is close to 0.76, in the category of high development, similar to Colombia and slightly below Mexico.
These are strong assets, but they are at risk today. The health system, once a source of national pride and an important source of revenue from exported services, faces shortages of basic supplies, aging hospitals and a growing number of doctors leaving their jobs. Education remains widely available, but is increasingly affected by a lack of resources and the emigration of teachers. Human capital exists, but it is being eroded.
Added to the above is the collapse of the regime of Nicolás Maduro, its biggest economist, and US sanctions, which have also contributed to the economy's decline.
Cuba is not Venezuela, as Harvard University professor Alejandro de la Fuente, an expert on Cuba, says.Unlike the island, Venezuela has the resources to pay for "Donald Trump's takeover."Someone else will have to foot the bill on the island.
The US has a unique opportunity with the presence of Marco Rubio – from Cuba and with real knowledge of Latin America – who provides a direct understanding of the problem.The commercial approach in which Trump views US actions in other countries gives Rubio the opportunity to lead and connect the independent Cuban-American organization with others, bring resources to Cuba and promote tourism, agriculture, industry, infrastructure – electricity, water, transport – that have declined during decades of low investment and lack of security, and its many riches.
The above has at least three clear fronts.First: relieve suffering immediately: food, medicine, energy.Second: rebuild the infrastructure.And the third: commitment to development.Cuba cannot rely on tourism alone.Tourism is an obvious advantage, but it is neither sufficient nor sustainable as the only strategy.
The island has potential in biotechnology and healthcare that can be enhanced with investment and market access.It has a relatively educated human capital that can integrate into the digital economy when the conditions are right.And it has fertile land (ploughed by bulls!) that could modernize food security, as Cuba today imports about 80% of the food it eats, according to the FAO;one of the highest rates of food addiction in Latin America.|
As if that were not enough, being 90 miles from the United States, the island is of great importance to Washington.Few countries have this geographical advantage and high levels of human capital at the same time.
But none of this will happen without economic openness, clear rules, legal security and the possibility for Cubans and foreign investors to undertake, invest and create.
Washington should not intervene in Cuba to win an ideological dispute.It is about saving the millions of people who are now living in poverty, confusion and displacement, and saving the country so that it can enter its territory and hopefully become its partner in the Caribbean.
That's the difficulty, but the opportunity.
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