Mar 03, 2026
3 min read
Economists believe that if the attacks continue, they will affect inflation and weaken the European economy.$80 oil could push Spain's CPI to 3.2%
With the closure of Persian Gulf exports, how long can the economy last?
Economists believe that if the attacks continue, they will affect inflation and weaken the European economy if they continue.Oil at a price of $80 can bring the Spanish index to 3.2%
The firestorm of the Middle East exploded again after the attack launched by the United States and Israel to the response of Iran and Tehran, which opened a geopolitical situation, but also economic, with an impact that is almost impossible to estimate.At this time, the export of oil from the Persian Gulf is paralyzed, the conflict has reached several countries (including the European Union) and the rise in the price of oil and gas has caused a sharp fall in the stock markets.
The extent to which the conflict affects the family's economy also depends on the duration of the war.The protracted conflict is not the primary analyst hypothesis.Analysts said, "Our baseline assumes that the conflict will continue for a week or two and end with a slowdown."And the central bank will have to raise interest rates in 2022, as it did after the invasion of Ukraine.
A fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny tongue of water barely 34 kilometers wide at its narrowest point - which Iran's Revolutionary Guards closed on Monday afternoon - but so does 20% of LNG tankers carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG).ING strategists estimate that a full shutdown would put at risk the distribution of nearly nine million barrels a day of crude oil produced in the region, with the rest being diverted through existing pipelines, as well as six million barrels a day of refined products.
Gonzalo Escribano, principal researcher and director of the energy and climate program at the Royal Electoral Institute, believes that one of the keys to the conflict will be if the main infrastructure for the export of hydrocarbons is damaged, in Iran and other countries in the region.Qatar and Saudi Arabia have chosen to shut down their gas industry and another oil field this Monday after two drone strikes.Per barrel if the flow is not restored quickly, which, despite the previous expectations of a global surplus, emphasizes the market risk of long-term instability of the country, "says the analysts of the Japanese bank MUGF, which experts believe could reach the mark if the concern continues that the additional supply announced by OPEC + will not be released this weekend, that he will continue to suzetra.
Transfer to the price
If the duration of the attack is limited to a few days or a few weeks, Ignacio de la Torre, chief economist at Arcanum, calculates a "very limited" impact on prices and growth.Now that the conflict has reached the ground, Maria Romero, executive partner of economic and market analysis at Afi, estimates that a 10 percent increase in the price of oil would lead to an increase in inflation of two to four tenths in developed countries.The Middle East plays a very relevant role in the production of fertilizers and other chemical products, such as ammonia: a longer closure of Hormuz would affect the European agri-food sector.
The impact on growth is also relevant.Barclays head of global research Ajay Rajadhyaksha estimates that "a sustained rise in oil prices of $10 a barrel could add between one and two tenths of a percent to growth over the next 12 months. If oil rises to $120 and stays there, the US economy (and the global economy) will have a significant impact."As for Spain, Funcas estimates that the CPI in dollars for oil will rise to 3.2% in 2026 from the 2.4% forecast at the beginning of the year, and that gas prices in the Iberian market (Mibgas) will remain at 40 euros until the end of the year.However, its director of economic affairs, Raymond Torres, rejects the inflation experienced since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and in countries like Spain."We will not reach those levels, because at that time the greatest impact was produced by natural gas," he says.
Rising prices will affect central banks, said María Romero, adding that the deterioration in activity will weigh on inflationary pressures and will put downward pressure on rates, and another step of unexpected rate increases this year from the ECB, which will make mortgages more expensive.
A fundamental variable, in any case, is the impact of the conflict on the mid-term legislative elections that the United States will hold in November.At Barclays, they estimate that the president will try to minimize the escalation of prices to protect the purchasing power of consumers: "We suspect that his willingness to tolerate a prolonged period of significantly higher oil prices or a sustained escalation of the conflict will be limited", they point out.they
Conflict between regions means strong demand in the foreign exchange market.Resuming its role as a safe-haven, the dollar has weakened in recent months amid doubts about US policy and a tariff war.On Monday, the American currency gained nearly 1% against the euro.At the beginning of 2022, the conflict in Ukraine, and then the dollar increased its strength by almost 20% between February and September 2022."While we don't expect a similar kind of movement this time around, there is a clear example of this in the dollar," they added bullishly.
En el mercado hay unanimidad en que la extensión del conflicto, que se inicia cuando acaba de cumplirse el cuarto aniversario del estallido de la guerra en Ucrania, será clave para conocer su impacto en el mercado. “La principal incertidumbre es si este conflicto resultará disruptivo o si se convertirá en un enfrentamiento prolongado similar al de Rusia-Ucrania”, sostienen en JP Morgan.
